PRESS RELEASE
Confidence survey methodology reviewed

Business Confidence Survey (BCS) and Consumer Confidence Survey (CCS) serve to produce rather important indicators for timely monitoring and analysing economic developments in Albania. Their purpose is to asses different aspects of business, consumers and overall economy activity. These surveys are carried out quarterly by the Bank of Albania, in cooperation with INSTAT.

Starting from 2013 Q4, the Bank of Albania, to improve the quality and range of the calculated and published indicators, will make two changes in the business confidence survey.

• First, the Bank of Albania will publish, for the first time, the Trade Confidence Indicator (TCI)

The steps followed in constructing the new confidence indicator for trade are introduced in the methodology explanation notes.

The main reason for producing a confidence indicator for trade is to obtain information for a dynamic sector that provides a more complete evidence on consumption in the Albanian economy. Also, it seeks to approximate the methodology used by the Bank of Albania with that employed by most advanced economies. It is brought in line with the guidelines for the confidence surveys by the European Commission and the OECD. Along with the publication of the TCI, seasonally unadjusted and adjusted balances for the trade sector will be published.

• Second, the Bank of Albania will review and improve the other components of confidence indicators

In accordance with the new methodology, the data from the beginning of measuring the Industry Confidence Indicator (ICI) and Service Confidence Indicator (SCI) are re-calculated, by further approximating their fluctuations with the annual changes of real GDP*. These changes are not a discontinuation of the series, as they are applied on the confidence indicators series from the beginning of the indicators construction. The old series of ICI and SCI may be calculated based on the more detailed balances by sector, which will continue to be published, being both adjusted and adjusted seasonally. The series of the Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) is recalculated by including the trade sector.
 
*The fluctuations of the new calculated indicator follow closely the fluctuations in the previous indicator. For more information see the methodology explanation notes: https://www.bankofalbania.org/rc/doc/Buletini_ekonomik_Vellimi_3_Nr_4_Regjimet_e_politikes_monetare_dhe_prirja_e_Bankes_se_Shqiperise_1728_1_6290.pdf