Quarterly Monetary Policy Report, 2020/I

The new information analysed in this Report suggests that the economic activity in Albania was hit by the earthquake of November 26th 2019, but this shock has not compromised the medium-and long-term trend of development. The consequences of the earthquake are expected to have a slowdown resultant effect on both the economic growth and inflation. However, this slowdown is expected to be temporary and concentrated during 2020.
The updating of our baseline scenario suggests that the growth pace will accelerate in the medium term. This acceleration is expected to bring the economy to equilibrium and inflation to target by 2021. Based on these considerations, the Supervisory Council deemed that the current monetary stimulus remains adequate.
In parallel with the baseline scenario, the Supervisory Council concludes that downside risks have increased. Their materialisation might dictate a further easing of the monetary policy stance.