Research Papers

Research Papers

The Research Papers consist of research studies and analyses on subjects related to theoretical and practical aspects, relevant for current and future economic and financial developments.

Note: The views expressed in the Research Papers are solely of the author/s and do not necessarily reflect those of the Bank of Albania.

Research Papers

Using an alternative approach to build an empirical model to forecast liquidity needs of the Albanian banking sector
Authors: Gerti Shijaku
This paper provides a simple new empirical alternative approach, which is based on daily data for the period 2008-2020 and various binary indicators, and it builds a set of econometric models that can be easily used to predict short-term and medium-term liquidity needs in the banking system over a chosen time horizon.

The economic effects of Covid-19
Authors: Bledar Hoda
In the absence of a treatment or a vaccine, the economic fallout due to a pandemic is undisputable either due to the spread of the pandemic and lives lost or due to the lockdowns imposed to limit the spread.

Spillover effects of ECB policies in a SoE framework
Authors: Bledar Hoda
The scope in this study is to assess the impact of unconventional monetary policy (UMP) of European Central Bank (ECB) on the dynamics of the Albanian economy.

Digital currencies impact on financial stability and financial cycle, H2 2021
Authors: Natasha Ahmetaj, Bledar Hoda, Livia Nikolla, Arisa Goxhaj (Saqe)
Digital currencies (DC) have spread quickly enough to draw the attention of policymakers and international organizations. The benefits in terms of greater speed and efficiency of payment transactions are clear. A greater ambiguity prevails regarding the risks to financial stability and monetary policy effectiveness.

An alternative decomposition of inflation in Albania into domestic and foreign contribution through input-output tables
Authors: Enian Cela
In the last decade, Albania has mostly faced lower inflation rates if compared with the 2000s. This seems associated both with weak cyclical conditions as well as with the presence of mostly negative imported inflation. Therefore, both the domestic and external environments foster low (even negative) inflationary pressures.

Albanian Household Wealth Survey-AHWS: Results from the first wave
Authors: Elona Dushku, Ola Cami
This report summarizes the main findings from the first round of the Albanian Household Wealth Survey, conducted by the Bank of Albania in early 2019. The purpose of this survey was to collect individual data on Albanian households, focusing on wealth and its main components.

Disentangling demand and supply shocks in Albanian credit market using a survey approach: which of them affects more bank lending to firms (and households)?
Authors: Gerti Shijaku
This paper aims to analyse a conventional wisdom on a key question to understand whether and to what extent bank lending in Albania is a result of demand-side or/and supply-side factors.

Forecasting Albanian Time Series with Linear and Nonlinear Univariate Models
Authors: Blerina Vika, Ilir Vika
The main economic indicators in Albania exhibit irregular patterns since the 1990s that may affect economic analyses with linear methods. The purpose of this study is to assess the ability of nonlinear methods in producing forecasts that could improve upon univariate linear models. The latter are represented in our analysis by the classic autoregressive

Forecasting the Albanian short-term inflation through a Bayesian VAR Model
Authors: Meri Papavangjeli
In the context of the Bank of Albania’s primary objective of achieving and maintaining price stability, generating accurate and reliable forecasts for the future rate of inflation is a necessity for its successful realization.

An Estimation of the Natural Interest Rate in Albania
Authors: Eglent Kika, Olti Mitre

We estimate the natural rate of interest in Albania using the Bayesian Maximum Likelihood method and the Kalman Filter. The structure of the model used to identify the behaviour of the natural interest rate in time is based on the seminal work of Laubach and Williams (2003) and includes a joint estimation of the output gap and of potential growth.

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