Research Papers

Research Papers

The Research Papers consist of research studies and analyses on subjects related to theoretical and practical aspects, relevant for current and future economic and financial developments.

Note: The views expressed in the Research Papers are solely of the author/s and do not necessarily reflect those of the Bank of Albania.

Research Papers

Monetary policy and bank profitability: Unveiling nonlinearities in an era of low interest rates and flattening yield curves
Authors: Meri Papavangjeli, Adela Bode, Besa Kokallaj (Vorpsi)
The progressive reduction of the key interest rate over recent years, exemplifying the accommodative monetary policy implemented by the Bank of Albania, necessitates a thorough examination of the repercussions of monetary policy on both bank profitability and the stability of the financial sector in Albania.

Macro econometric Albanian model (Meam): An update of the main equations and model elasticities
The Macro Econometric Albanian Model (MEAM) is a semi-structural model consistent with neo-classical growth models for small-open economies. While the long-run properties are closely linked to theory, the short-run dynamics are estimated and data driven.

Macro Stress Testing of the Banking Sector in Albania
Authors: Juna Bozdo, Arisa Goxhaj (Saqe), Adam Gersl
This paper describes the evolution of the macro stress testing of the banking sector applied in the Bank of Albania over the past 15 years. It gives details about the stress testing methodologies used over this horizon, with emphasis on the last two approaches: the one used in 2013-2021 and especially the one used currently, i.e. a new approach that started in 2022.

Using an alternative approach to build an empirical model to forecast liquidity needs of the Albanian banking sector
Authors: Gerti Shijaku
This paper provides a simple new empirical alternative approach, which is based on daily data for the period 2008-2020 and various binary indicators, and it builds a set of econometric models that can be easily used to predict short-term and medium-term liquidity needs in the banking system over a chosen time horizon.

The economic effects of Covid-19
Authors: Bledar Hoda
In the absence of a treatment or a vaccine, the economic fallout due to a pandemic is undisputable either due to the spread of the pandemic and lives lost or due to the lockdowns imposed to limit the spread.

Spillover effects of ECB policies in a SoE framework
Authors: Bledar Hoda
The scope in this study is to assess the impact of unconventional monetary policy (UMP) of European Central Bank (ECB) on the dynamics of the Albanian economy.

Digital currencies impact on financial stability and financial cycle, H2 2021
Authors: Natasha Ahmetaj, Bledar Hoda, Livia Nikolla, Arisa Goxhaj (Saqe)
Digital currencies (DC) have spread quickly enough to draw the attention of policymakers and international organizations. The benefits in terms of greater speed and efficiency of payment transactions are clear. A greater ambiguity prevails regarding the risks to financial stability and monetary policy effectiveness.

An alternative decomposition of inflation in Albania into domestic and foreign contribution through input-output tables
Authors: Enian Cela
In the last decade, Albania has mostly faced lower inflation rates if compared with the 2000s. This seems associated both with weak cyclical conditions as well as with the presence of mostly negative imported inflation. Therefore, both the domestic and external environments foster low (even negative) inflationary pressures.

Albanian Household Wealth Survey-AHWS: Results from the first wave
Authors: Elona Dushku, Ola Cami
This report summarizes the main findings from the first round of the Albanian Household Wealth Survey, conducted by the Bank of Albania in early 2019. The purpose of this survey was to collect individual data on Albanian households, focusing on wealth and its main components.

Disentangling demand and supply shocks in Albanian credit market using a survey approach: which of them affects more bank lending to firms (and households)?
Authors: Gerti Shijaku
This paper aims to analyse a conventional wisdom on a key question to understand whether and to what extent bank lending in Albania is a result of demand-side or/and supply-side factors.
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