Research Papers
The Research Papers consist of research studies and analyses on subjects related to theoretical and practical aspects, relevant for current and future economic and financial developments.
Note: The views expressed in the Research Papers are solely of the author/s and do not necessarily reflect those of the Bank of Albania.
Research Papers
Natural rate of unemployment – Reduced form approach
Does Primary Sovereignty Risk Matter for Bank Stability? Evidence from the Albanian Banking System
Potential output and growth, output and unemployment gap in Albania – Comparative analysis of recent estimations - 2015
The Effective Lower Bound for the Policy Rate in Euroized Economies - An Application to the Case of Albania
A statistical evaluation of gap’s forecasting performance for the Albanian economy
This paper aims at offering a statistical evaluation methodology on the forecasting performance of the GAP model, a semi-structural economic model used to support monetary policy decisions at the Bank of Albania since 2011. In this paper we evaluate the forecasts produced purely by the model, and not those used by the Monetary Policy Department, which also include the expert judgment and are not made public. The analytical approach used in the discussion material combines a statistical diagnostic look-up consisting in statistical measurements as RMSE and BIAS important to understand the forecasting performance of the model as an instrument in one, two and three years ahead time horizons.
Fiscal policy, output and financial stress in the case of developing and emerging European economies: a threshold VAR approach
Has the crisis changed the monetary transmission mechanism in Albania? An application of kernel density estimation technique
The post crisis period in Albanian economy has been distinguished by low inflation and slow economic growth. In response to negative inflation and output gaps, Bank of Albania has persistently reduced its policy rate to support economic activity and bring inflation to its objective. Hence, the growth in credit and aggregate demand is lagging. The transmission mechanism seems to have lost some of its efficiency. This paper investigates the hypothesis that the relationship among interest rate, money and inflation has changed in the post crisis period (the case of Albania).